More limitations are inevitable, but rice might keep India’s inflation rate high


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According to a Nomura report, additional restrictions on rice exports in categories that are still exempt may be implemented if domestic prices continue to rise.

In general, rice stocks should remain above buffer levels, but current export restrictions may not necessarily improve the demand-supply situation significantly, suggesting that there remains an upside risk to rice prices. As a result, we believe there is a risk that further curbs on rice exports could be imposed, particularly in categories still exempted.

As part of its fight against inflation and subpar sowing caused by irregular rainfall, the Center has put a 20% levy on exports of several kinds of rice as well as a prohibition on exports of broken rice in an effort to lower domestic prices.

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