India is the largest emerging market bond market that is not included in global indices, but bankers predict that will soon change, potentially attracting billions of dollars in inflows. One of the causes is the recent exclusion of Russia.

The inclusion of India in JPMorgan & Chase Co.’s emerging markets bond index is expected to be announced as early as mid-September, with the actual entry taking place in the third quarter of the following year. That announcement is anticipated to be made in the fourth quarter of this year and the second or third quarter of 2023, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Both predict that India will have a 10% weight in the index, the most allowed for a nation, and that the change might result in $30 billion in inflows.

The third-largest economy in Asia with a $1 trillion debt market would be more accessible to foreign investors if high-yielding Indian sovereign bonds were included in global indices. It would come after numerous failed attempts over the years brought on by concerns about debt inflows and debates, such as one over tax advantages for foreigners. The absence of Russia from the JPMorgan gauges following its invasion of Ukraine may have given index compilers more motivation to include new indicators.