In the upcoming months, Russia is likely to send more petroleum to Asia and the Middle East as Europe tightens sanctions as part of an intensified response to the invasion of Ukraine.

According to statistics from S&P Global Commodities at Sea, the two regions have already been consuming a larger proportion of Russian exports since the war started, illustrating the yet incomplete reconfiguration of global energy patterns. The pressure on Moscow to divert more of its energy output will increase as the European Union prepares to ban most imports of Russian crude beginning on December 5 and oil products beginning in February.

According to Morgan Stanley, India and China collectively took 2.7 million barrels per day of Russian crude and products last month, which is 54% more than a year prior. The rest of the world, which includes smaller countries, increased imports from 561,000 to 926,000 barrels per day, according to a recent note from the bank. According to customs data, China spent an all-time high $8.3 billion in August on Russian energy supplies.